Bauxite Imports Surge 25.5% YoY in January-February 2025, Short-Term Imports May Continue to Grow [SMM Analysis]

SMM March 21 News: In January 2025, China's bauxite imports reached 16.21 million mt, up 8.23% MoM and up 23.31% YoY; in February, imports were 14.41 million mt, down 11.06% MoM and up 28.25% YoY. For the first two months of 2025, cumulative bauxite imports amounted to 30.62 million mt, up 25.6% YoY. (HS code: 26060000) Regarding the main sources of bauxite imports: In January, China imported 12.661 million mt from Guinea, up 21.9% MoM and up 37.18% YoY; in February, imports from Guinea were 10.729 million mt, down 15.26% MoM and up 21.17% YoY. The significant increase in bauxite imports from Guinea for two consecutive months was mainly due to the increased enthusiasm of Guinean bauxite companies to ship more ore, following a substantial rise in CIF prices starting from November 2024. After accounting for shipping times, there was a noticeable increase in bauxite imports from Guinea during January-February. From January to mid-March 2025, the daily average shipment volume from Guinea saw another increase compared to November-December 2024, and it is expected that China's bauxite imports from Guinea will see further growth in March-April 2025. In January-February, China imported 2.922 million mt and 2.363 million mt from Australia, respectively, primarily due to the onset of the rainy season, which significantly reduced bauxite supply. Starting from mid-March, the impact of the rainy season in Australia diminished, leading to a rebound in shipments, and bauxite imports from Australia are expected to recover in March-April. Regarding non-mainstream sources of bauxite imports: In January-February 2025, bauxite imports from countries such as Turkey, Laos, Ghana, the Republic of Côte d'Ivoire, Malaysia, Montenegro, India, Pakistan, and Guyana totaled 1.95 million mt, up 139% YoY, accounting for 6.36% of total imports. SMM Brief Comment: In the short term, under the pressure of losses, alumina refineries may cut production, potentially reducing bauxite demand to some extent. On the supply side, it is expected that bauxite imports will show an increasing trend, with a notable increase in supply from Guinea. The bauxite supply and demand fundamentals may shift towards a relatively loose pattern, and bauxite prices are expected to face downward pressure in the short term. (The above information is based on market data collection and comprehensive assessment by the SMM research team. The information provided is for reference only and does not constitute direct advice for investment decisions. Clients should make prudent decisions and not rely solely on this information, as any decisions made are unrelated to SMM.) Data Source: SMM Click SMM Industry Database for more information (Guo Mingxin 021-51595800)